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資料類型 學位論文 
主要題名 以GIS及CA為基礎的土地使用發展預測模擬方法 
作者 蔡宜鴻 
出版日期 1999 
頁碼或冊數 75 
中文摘要 在許多的都市研究學者的眼中,都市常常被視為是一個有機體,而都市的成長就像是有機體一般循著一定的法則在成長。若能尋找出此法則的脈絡,進而掌握此法則的運作,則可以有效的觀察出未來都市成長的趨勢,並掌握了未來土地使用的空間結構。而且,模擬土地使用在空間中發展的行為模式,對於研究都市發展領域,一直是個相當重要且複雜的課題。在都市規劃過程中,若能對空間中土地使用的發展變遷狀況能多所掌握,則對於都市計畫土地使用之規劃工作,可提供重要且直接的幫助。本研究便是基於這樣的立場,嘗試在土地使用模擬系統之中,結合最近幾年在學界引起廣泛討論的複雜科學中之理論「細胞自動機」,作為系統架構運算的基礎理論。此外,本研究制定模擬系統土地演變的規則時,採用多目標規劃理論中之「分析階層程序法」,分析各種影響土地轉變的因素之間的優先順序以及權重關係。此法可將不同使用者對於各種變因的不同看法,轉換成實際的權重數值,以方便進行數值化的模擬程序。經過此程序,使用者對各種影響變因的看法都將轉變為模擬結果的表現。本研究以地理資訊系統的網格空間資料庫為基礎,利用細胞自動機理論與分析層級程序法,架構出一套新的土地使用預測模擬系統,配合自我發展條件以及鄰近的土地使用狀況,模擬出各種土地使用最適合的空間分布情形,並以嘉義縣中埔鄉為進行實證模擬之研究對象。 
英文摘要 In the viewpoints of the urban study scholars, urbans are usually regarded as an organism. The development of urbans follows a set of rules as an organism. If the logic of this set of rules can be found in order to handle the operation of this set of rules, the trend of future urban development can be efficiently observed and the space structure of landuse can be controlled. Moreover, the behavior pattern of landuse simulation in the space development is an important and complicated issue in the field of urban study. In the process of urban planning, if the change of the landuse development in the space can be controlled, this will provide important and direct help to the landuse plan in urban planning. This study is based on this viewpoint trying to adapt the cellular automata which is widely discussed among the scholars in the complexity science as the basic theory in the calculation of this system structure. In addition, to analyze the various factors which affect the land change in priority of time and weight relation, this study adapts analytic hierarchy process in the multicriteria to define the rules of the change in landuse simulation. In this way, different users' different viewpoints about factors can be transformed into definite weight values to facilitate the numerical simulation. Through this process, these various viewpoints can be transformed into the result of simulation. This study is based on the grid space database of geography information system and adapts cellular automata and analytic hierarchy process to structure a new set of prediction to landuse simulation which goes with the qualification of self-development and the condition of the landuse nearby. This study simulates the most suitable space distribution of landuse and takes Zhong-pu township in Cha-yi county for the experimental target. 
出版者 國立成功大學都市計劃學系 
出版地 臺南市 
關鍵詞 嘉義縣;中埔鄉;地理資訊系統;細胞自動機;土地使用模擬;分析階層程序法